Locks

MLB – Braves @ Mets Team Total under 3.5 points (-110): 6:15 p.m. CT on FOX

This match rained yesterday.

A fun and challenging game these days is to browse a New York Mets composition map and see how many names you recognize. They have a long list of injuries to players from the starting position, and even players that you may recognize as Francisco lindor did not meet expectations.

These absences recently resulted in a power failure. The Mets beat .194 as a team over the past week and are averaging two points per game in their last six games. Throws on the right as they will tonight also held them back all season, with the Mets managing a batting average of 0.225 and just 2.6 points per game.

Atlanta Braves starting Ian anderson has dominated weak rosters this season and has five starts where he has allowed a point or less. In a game where it’s expected to be cool and wet, I see the Mets’ saves struggling at home again, so I love that lone team total to stay under.

NBA – Nuggets / Trail Blazers on 227.5 (-110): 3:00 p.m. CT on TNT

I swear my jaw hit the ground when I saw that total show up at 228.5, then I bet – again – here. Really sharp, you bet exactly the same for four games in a row and expect this time to be different?

This might be the definition of insanity, but let them go at their rated power, I just can’t ignore how this series is played out. Yes, it took a ridiculous flurry of scores at the end of Game 3 to push that one over the total, but that says more about the explosive scoring potential of these teams and ignores that the game was easily on the sidelines. pace until a bad 3rd quarter. The Portland Trail Blazers just haven’t played any meaningful defense, allowing up 1,214 points per possession in this series, a number that would place them last by a mile in the regular season.

You’ll also notice the Denver Nuggets have warmed up beyond the arc, steadily improving their 3-point percentage in every game and getting plenty of points from the free throw line over the last two. defense. The Blazers don’t stray from their style and this is the one that creates overs, so I see another one here that adds to the 3-0 trend.

NBA – 76ers / Wizards First half out of 116.5 (-110): 6:00 p.m. CT on ESPN

When the Philadelphia 76ers and Washington Wizards come together, they score a lot early on. Every first half of their five meetings this season has ended at or above that total tonight, averaging 126.6 points. These teams also make most of their score in the first half, averaging 16.6 points more than the second half.

This first half total of only 51.1% of the full game total just does not reflect the trend of 53.5% throughout the season and therefore has a lot of value. I was a little surprised to see Philly ready to run and score at Washington’s highest pace in this series, thinking they could use their excellent defense to slow things down, but instead they achieved over 120 in both matches.

I also like the story that swirls around this game with Russell westbrook for blood now, piling on top of his already intense aversion to Joel Embiid and the Sixers. With the home pitch and a lot of emotional motivation here, I see the Wizards playing with their hair on fire at the start of this one. That, combined with Philadelphia’s hot attack, should fuel another high-scoring first half between these teams.

Degenerate

None degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 268-176 ATS (+80.8 units) on his locks since joining zone coverage.

Each day, it will offer its locks and its degenerate choices. Locks are the games he trusts. Degenerates are fun choices but riskier ones.



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