No locks today. Locks will return when games improve and baseball stops having more variance than a roulette wheel.
MLB Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees -1.5 (+110): 6:05 p.m. CT on ESPN+
Normally, I would watch this game, I would see Domingo Germán leaving for the Yankees and I would be scared. But tonight, I think the game lends itself to a strong showing from New York in a rebounding spot, where they can take advantage of an injured Mariners team.
Germán managed to get things under control somewhat in his last start. Tonight, he’ll benefit from several Seattle stars struggling with injuries, including their two most dangerous bats in Julio Rodriguez and Ty France. Without them in the lineup, Seattle’s struggles against right-handed throwing won’t improve, giving the German a chance to look decent.
As for the Yankees, they face a southpaw in Marco Gonzales, and no other team comes close to their power numbers against southpaws. New York also has the best margin of victory over a loss, and they should be motivated here after yesterday’s late slump. All of this means Yankee is exploding for me, and this cheaper price makes me jump right in.
MLB Houston Astros Team Total Over 4.5 (-110): 7:00 p.m. CT on ESPN
That’s about it on Nathan Eovaldi and his monstrous numbers against the Astros. The Red Sox right-hander boasts a .451 career average and 1.652 OPS against Houston’s current roster, which is beyond ridiculous. Much of that comes from his previous encounter with them this season, where he gave up 9 runs in less than 2 innings.
It’s unlikely to be repeated here, but Eovaldi had a tough July and Houston is in the top 5 in power metrics against right-handers, so the ingredients are there. And a lower-tier Boston bullpen that has allowed the 4th-most runs in baseball won’t offer much relief. It’s just a bad Red Sox pitching staff right now, and one of baseball’s best teams should be victimized all game long.
Tiny Nick is 819-690 ATS (+73 units) on his locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Each day it will offer its Locks and Degenerate choices. The locks are the games he trusts. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier choices.