DraftKings odds

  • Titans: +7 (-110) +250 ML
  • Rams: -7 (-110) -320 ML
  • Total: o52.5 (-110) u 52.2 (-110)

NFL game odds for the ninth week of Sunday night football.

As we preview the NFL’s game pick for Sunday’s final game which includes a Super Bowl 34 rematch. The Titans, winners of four in a row, have just picked up a thrilling overtime victory in Indianapolis. Tennessee sit atop the AFC South at 6-2, but will have to figure out how to navigate the rest of the 2021 campaign without their superstar full-back Derrick Henry. Henry, who had foot surgery earlier this week, accounted for 36% of the Tennesee’s offensive production this season. The Rams have also won four straight games and return home in Week 9 with a 7-1 record. Matthew Stafford is a favorite to win the MVP award. His favorite target, Cooper Kupp, is at or near the top of the league in virtually every receiving category. Los Angeles’ offense ranks in the league’s top five in two yards per game (405.9) and points scored per game (30.6). Will the Titans be able to go far enough offensively without Henry to keep up with the Rams’ powerful attack? Let’s find out.

NFL Gambling: Tennese’s offense against Los Angeles defense

With Derrick Henry on the set, the Titans will have to rely on Ryan Tannehill more than ever to generate offensive success. Tannehill has been playing well recently, but threw four interceptions in his last three games and threw two last week. He will face a Rams defense this week which is tied for the league lead in interceptions with 11. Tannehill’s favorite target AJ Brown has been superb, accounting for almost 50% of the Tennesee’s receiving distance. in the past three weeks. However, Brown will have his hands full this week as he will likely be followed all day by all-pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey. The Los Angeles defense also ranks in the league’s top eight this year in EPA drop (0.011), yards allowed per passing attempt (6.5), and explosive success rate (8% ).

Tennessee doesn’t have much depth behind Henry. Jeremy McNichols is listed as Henry’s replacement and only has seven races a year. The new Adrian Peterson is 36 and will almost certainly need a week or two to get up to speed. The Titans are also ranked 24th in the league for race success rate this season (40%), and that’s with Derrick Henry. The Rams haven’t been spectacular against the run this year, but they have placed in the top ten in the league over the past five weeks in terms of EPA (-0.105) and race success rate (37, 8%).
The Titans will also face a pass rush from the Rams which produced football’s most sacks with 25 this season. This pass rush will also win the future Hall of Famer Von Miller this Sunday. Tennessee have had issues protecting Tannehill this season as only three teams have allowed their quarterbacks to be sacked more times per game.

Los Angeles has one of the best defenses in the NFL’s red zone, allowing touchdowns on just 46.4% of opponents’ trips in the red zone. Although they had one of the best running backs of all time, the Titans rank in the middle of the pack this year by turning red zone trips into touchdowns at a rate of 62.5%. That number will almost certainly drop in Henry’s absence. None of this bodes well for a Tennessee offense that will need to score touchdowns instead of field goals to keep pace with the Rams’ offense.

NFL Gambling: Los Angeles Offensive Against Tennessee Defense

It’s no secret that Los Angeles has one of the most dynamic offenses in football. Sean McVay’s unit ranks first in the NFL this year in terms of EPA per game (0.191), as well as in the top five in terms of offensive success rate (49.9%) and kill rate. explosive play (12%). Matthew Stafford has been phenomenal this season and has ten touchdowns on a single interception in his last three games. The Rams started the rushing game last week – Darrell Henderson carried 14 times for 91 yards and one. This year, Los Angeles has eclipsed 33 points in half of its games and has only scored less than 26 once. Stafford apparently never takes sacks. The Rams have taken the fewest sacks per game in football, averaging just 1.0.

The Titans arrive in Los Angeles after a week of allowing Carson Wentz to throw three touchdowns, a season-high. Tennessee had no response for Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman who had ten catches for 86 yards and two touchdowns. Cooper Kupp has to lick his chops right now as he prepares to face this defense.

Tennessee’s defense hasn’t been stingy at all against the run this season. With an average of 4.5 yards allowed per carry, the Titans rank 29th in the league this season for opposing run success rate (46.4%). Tennessee also ranks 25th among opponents of the EPA (-0.025).

NFL game choice

The Titans’ offense has its work cut out this week without their running back around the world. Tannehill may very well have to rely on Julio Jones and Jeremy McNichols to catch the bulk of his passes. Jalen Ramsey will likely be all over AJ Brown, and the Los Angeles defense is already very strong against the pass. We haven’t yet seen what the Tennessee racing game looks like without Henry, but there is a lack of depth, and for now, experience behind it. Tannehill will also face an elite pass rush and a ball peddling secondary.
The Rams have the number one offense in terms of total DVOA. The Titans have the 20th ranked defense in this regard. Stafford and company should have no problem scoring points in this game. They’ll be able to pitch it like they’ve been doing all season, and they should be able to keep last week’s success in the racing game.

Most sports bets have this line set at 7 or 7.5. That half-point difference could be huge as -7 keeps the Rams line up in a touchdown. It may be a good idea to buy a half point depending on the line / odds you are working with. Either way, the Rams are the smart game. There’s no way the Tennessee offense will follow the Rams without Derrick Henry.

Sean McVay is 13-3 all-time ATS in games following a game in which his Rams failed to cover. The Rams didn’t cover last week. Ryan Tannehill is also 4-10 ATS in prime time games. Support the Rams in this Sunday night showdown.

Picks: Rams -7 (-110)

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