One of my all-time favorite quotes, which applies to both the market and politics, comes from the lips of Harold Macmillan, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom between 1957 and 1963.
Asked by a young journalist about what was most likely to deflect the UK government, Macmillan said: “Events, my dear boy, events.
The last time I used that particular quote in this column was in early 2020 in “What They’re Saying About Coronavirus”. I wrote, “I can’t remember a time in the last 40 to 50 years when ‘events’ lined up like ducks in a row to impact virtually every market.”
And here are the major events that I have highlighted in this column with some comments:
• Climate change: “The past decade has been the hottest and hottest in the history of the world. In the United States, the years 2014 to 2019 inclusive were the hottest five years in history. Not a week goes by without some kind of weather anomaly happening somewhere. When I read such weather aberrations, it makes me fear the impact it might have on agriculture in the United States during the growing season.
• China Trade Agreement: “Will China’s new demand associated with climate change issues also push up US farm prices?” As a firm believer that history repeats itself, the stage seems set for a scenario to unfold in American agriculture similar to that of 1972 through the early 1980s. If so, grain producers and livestock should hone their marketing skills. After all, the key to success in farming is marketing.
• Coronavirus: “The long-term impact of the virus sweeping through China and taking hold in many other countries in Asia and Europe is unknown. In my opinion, the coronavirus suggests loud and clear that China needs food as soon as possible. Foods such as pork, beef, poultry and cooking oil. But make no mistake about it. The trade deal with China is bullish US agriculture.
Here we are 17 months after I wrote the column above and the same events are dominating most of the US markets. The past July was the hottest month in world history, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Environmental Information Centers.
But, in my opinion, summer 2022 for the United States and the rest of the world will experience even hotter and drier conditions that overtake summer 2021. Summer 2022 may well be an all-time record for the United States. heat and dry growing conditions.
The Chinese trade deal is underway and they will likely buy more US goods than expected due to the need. Flooding in the main corn and soybean regions of their country is currently a major worry for the Chinese.
China is the target of record flooding and if such a phenomenon does not change quickly, there is no doubt in my mind that it will need a lot more US foodstuffs than it subscribed to in the deal. commercial.
As for the coronavirus, new projections from COVID-19 researchers have indicated that the pandemic that has killed 4.7 million people worldwide could decrease significantly in the United States by March. It was two years ago, in March, when the pandemic began to impact the daily lives of every American.
But what about the rest of the world? From the last paragraph of the well-written article “No End in Sight for the COVID-Led Global Supply Chain Disruption” by Garth Friesen in Forbes: “Short-term relief for global supply chain disruption is not not around the corner. As long as demand continues through the holiday shopping season, COVID outbreaks continue to shut down shipping centers around the world, and extreme weather conditions are hitting individual links in the chain, expect the disturbance persists. “
The most dramatic event in years was recently when Chinese real estate giant Evergrande missed an $ 83 million payment and warned it could default on its $ 300 billion in debt.
The news caused all stock and commodity markets to collapse on the first day of the week. But a huge recovery occurred when the Chinese central bank injected $ 70 billion to support Evergrande and calm markets around the world.
Chinese news has been a historic event. And while most markets ignored the news at the end of the week, I bet the story, the event, has a long tail.
Investors, traders and agricultural producers should keep a close watch on China and be on the lookout for other events as they arise. This week conclusively proves that these are still events.