My son is now 1 year old. What a world. He is adorable. But he’ll need some college money assuming he doesn’t grow up to be a 6’4 ” god or a TikTok star and it still costs a pretty dime to attend.
So now is the time to keep nurturing those 529s and what better way * to invest than college football picks.
Note: There are much better ways to invest money and neither I nor BHGP are responsible for any losses you may incur as a result of a ‘tip’.
The ground rules are a little different this season. We’re going to keep it simple so that each bet generates a potential payout in approximately unit payouts. Not sure we’re proving anything with the weird bankroll up / down dealio. This calculation was delicate.
However, you probably won’t have more than 5 bets in any given week. Also … Big Ten games only. For now.
To sum up:
Iowa +1 in Nebraska (+1)
OSU -7.5 in Michigan (-1.1)
Rutgers +100 vs. Maryland (-1)
Michigan State +165 vs. Penn State (+1.65)
Indiana to Purdue over 50.5 (+1)
Northwestern Illinois under 44.5 (-1.1)
Wisconsin -7 v Minnesota (-1.1)
ATS 1-2 -1.2u
O / U 1-1 -0.1u
SU 1-1 + .65u
These games took place over a month ago. Some logics were flawless while others were less so. Screaming domestic dogs in rivalry games I guess.
As for this week’s Big Ten slate, here’s where it stands. Non-Rutgers lines courtesy of DraftKings.
12/28/21, 9:15 p.m. – West Virginia mountaineers (+170 | O / U 45) vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers (-5 | -200)
12/29, 1:15 p.m. – Maryland turtles (-3.5 | -160) against Virginia tech hokies (+140 | O / U 54.5)
12/30, 2 p.m. – Tennessee Volunteers (-5 | -190) against Purdue Boilermakers (+160 | O / U 63.5)
12/30, 18p – Pittsburgh Panthers (+105 | O / U 56.5) vs. Michigan State Spartans (-2.5 | -125)
12/30, 9:30 p.m. – Badgers in Wisconsin (-6 | -220) against Arizona State Sun Devils (+180 | O / U 42)
31/12 / 10y – Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-14.5 | -630) vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+465 | O / U 61.5)
12/31/6:30 p.m. – Georgia Bulldogs (-7.5 | -305) against Michigan Wolverine (+240 | O / U 45)
1/1, 11a – Penn State Nittany Lions (-1 | -120) against Arkansas Razorbacks (+100 | O / U 47.5)
1/1, 2p – Iowa Hawkeye (+125 | O / U 44) vs. Kentucky Wild Cats (-3 | -145)
1/1, 4p – Utah utes (+200 | O / U 66) vs. Ohio state Buckeyes (-6.5 | -250)
So many Big Ten games! I am dizzy. First off, my thoughts on betting on Iowa football:
Personally, I think the Kentucky record is as sweet as the Iowa record. Their best victory is either their victory of 7 points in Florida, in the same vein as the PSU of the Hawkeyes then big victories against 6-6 teams: LSU (42-21) & Louisville (52-21). Otherwise … not really buy it. Corn! They are well balanced. Top 30 for offense and defense.
This team is reminiscent of the 2011 Oklahoma team, although that group made it into the top 10, and I think they will be well prepared for Iowa. The Hawkeyes face a QB drama, which is never a good way to get into the game. I don’t think they will win but act like OVER 44 as a way to cover my happiness without betting on Iowa to lose.
The numbers tilt a bit that way too. Over is 5-1 in Iowa’s last 6 bowls, 11-8 when Iowa is an underdog with Brian as OC, and 23-17 when Kentucky is a favorite under Stoops. What’s disheartening is that Iowa has a straight 0-5 (0-4-1 ATS) after losing as an underdog since 2017.
Quick little shot after so much talk about the Iowa game:
- Minnesota -5: I just think the Gophers are the better team. All 8 of their wins have come from 5 points or more.
- Maryland -3.5: The 6 losses came to teams that were ranked at the time of their clash, including 5 in the top 10. Virginia Tech is unranked.
- Purdue +5: The Boilers are 18-8 ATS as an underdog under Brohm, including 8-3 on the road, which is expected in Nashville against Tennessee.
- Arizona State +6: Get ahead of my New Years resolution not to bet a dime on Graham Mertz. The end of the game westward for Wisconsin and ASU is 11-6 ATS as an underdog under Herm Edwards.
- Wake Forest -14.5: Even though I want to bet straight on Rutgers, they just don’t have good results under their belt. Their FCS wins came up against a combined 15-33 team.
- Arkansas +100: The Pigs are 11-4 ATS as an underdog under Sam Pittman. PSU is 7-20-2 ATS after a loss under James Franklin.
Not sure if there is any further thought here, but these are the six New Years games, so split them up a bit.
I hate “going back to my day” when guys like Kennies Pickett & Walker decide to pull out of a big bowl game, but it really stinks to see guys helping get their teams to their first NY6 bowl since … a while … and not play. But I understand ! The value for them is making sure 1) they’re healthy and 2) in the best shape of their lives before the draft in a few months.
That being said, one team loses a QB, while the other loses an RB. MSU -2.5 I would love the end if both guys were playing but it’s not!
Utah and Ohio State have combined to be underdogs in one game this season (Utah at USC)! Wild statistics. Personally, I think Utah peaks at the right time unlike OSU, but I feel like this one could be a classic in Pasadena. OVER 66
Am I suffering from justplayediowaitis as a Michigan bettor? I feel like they might be the best team of 4 in the playoffs and certainly have the best resumes. The least embarrassing loss of the 3 of them and the last 5 strongest games of the peloton. I think their OL are just a little better than Georgia’s which will make the difference. Michigan +240
And There you go. Good year!
Guaranteed rate bowl: Minnesota -5 (1.1 to win 1)
New Era pinstripe bowl: Maryland -3.5 (1.1 to win 1)
Musical City Bowl: Purdue +5 (1.1 to gain 1)
Chick-fil-A Fishing bowl: Michigan State -2.5 (1.1 to win 1)
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl: Arizona State +6 (1.1 to win 1)
TaxSlayer Alligator Bowl: Wake Forest -14.5 (1.1 to win 1)
CFP semi-final at Capital One Orange bowl: Michigan +240 (1 to win 2.4)
Outback Bowl: Arkansas +100 (1 to win 1)
VRBO Citrus Bowl: Iowa / Kentucky OVER 44 (1.1 to win 1)
Rose bowl Game presented by Capital One: Utah / Ohio State OVER 66 (1.1 to win 1)
Total: 38-36-2 (+ 2.7u)
ATS: 20-15-2 (+ 3.5u)
SU: 3-4 (+2.0 u)
O / U: 15-17-0 (-2.8u)
Bets on futures:
Penn State over 8.5 wins -1.1
Illinois over 3.5 wins +1
Nebraska under 6.5 wins +1
Michigan State less than 5 wins -1.05
Penn State wins conference -0.5